Mohammed Siraj’s recent Test record in 2026 has become a notable talking point for India’s red-ball plans. After a productive 2025, the right-arm quick has seen a clear drop in wicket-taking efficiency, with pace, strike rate and overall impact all trending downward across a small but significant sample.
Siraj’s 2026 Test numbers show a steep decline
The comparison between 2025 and 2026 is stark. Siraj delivered a strong return last year, but the current season has not matched that output, either in volume or efficiency. In only three Tests in 2026, he has taken five wickets, compared with 43 wickets in 10 Tests in 2025.
The performance swing is best understood through core metrics. His average has moved up only slightly, but the more telling shift is in strike rate, which has worsened significantly, indicating fewer wickets for each spell and less consistent pressure on batters.
| Year | Matches | Wickets | Average | Strike Rate |
|---|
| 2025 | 10 | 43 | 27.21 | 43.47 |
| 2026 | 3 | 5 | 28.60 | 68.40 |
Strike rate is the biggest red flag
Siraj’s average has moved from 27.21 to 28.60, a relatively modest change. The larger concern is his strike rate, which has jumped from 43.47 in 2025 to 68.40 in 2026, a clear sign that he is taking wickets far less frequently.
That shift matters in Test cricket because strike rate often reflects sustained threat more accurately than raw wicket totals over short periods. In a format where bowlers need to create pressure across long spells, that kind of regression can reshape selection debates quickly.
Why India may weigh alternative options
Siraj’s dip comes at a time when India are also looking at depth in their pace attack. If his rhythm and pace remain below previous standards, the management may consider whether a temporary break or a change in role is needed, especially in overseas conditions where sustained seam movement and bounce are valuable.
The discussion is not only about recent form, but also about suitability across formats and conditions. With New Zealand tours and other away assignments demanding reliable new-ball and support bowling, selectors often prefer bowlers with strong first-class returns and adaptability.
Pacers in the mix: performance context matters
Among the names discussed, Auqib Nabi stands out for his domestic consistency. He finished as the leading wicket-taker in the Ranji Trophy last season and has already been part of India A and squad conversations, making him an analytical fit for red-ball evaluation.
Gurnoor Brar brings a different profile: height, bounce and a decent first-class record. His numbers are especially relevant because he has already produced 67 wickets in 20 matches, which translates to a wicket every 2.99 matches, along with a strong strike rate of 40.9.
| Bowler | Matches | Wickets | Average | Strike Rate |
|---|
| Gurnoor Brar | 20 | 67 | 25.00 | 40.90 |
| Yash Thakur | 33 | 97 | 27.58 | Not stated |
Yash Thakur is another serious option from a data perspective. With 97 wickets in 33 first-class matches, he averages 2.94 wickets per match, which is close to the volume expected from a frontline red-ball quick in domestic cricket.
How the domestic data compares
Brar’s strike rate of 40.9 is particularly competitive and suggests wicket-taking frequency that can translate well in Test cricket. Nabi’s appeal is more about control and adaptability, while Thakur offers a blend of pace and movement that could be useful if India want variety alongside their existing seamers.
These profiles matter because India are not just searching for pace; they need consistency, control and the ability to sustain pressure on helpful surfaces. In that context, recent domestic wicket rates are a more useful guide than reputation alone.
What the numbers suggest for selection
Siraj’s 2025 season showed what he can do when rhythm and workload align. His 43 wickets in 10 Tests made him one of India’s most productive seamers, and his strike rate of 43.47 placed him in a strong wicket-taking bracket for the year.
But 2026 tells a different story. Five wickets in three Tests, a higher average and a much slower strike rate suggest that his current level is below the standard India would usually expect from a first-choice quick. That is why alternative names are being discussed more seriously than before.
On recent evidence, Auqib Nabi may offer the best combination of red-ball control and current domestic form, while Gurnoor Brar and Yash Thakur remain viable options depending on conditions and squad balance. For selectors, the central question is now not whether Siraj has quality, but whether his current numbers justify continued automatic selection.
In performance terms, the answer remains open. In statistical terms, though, 2026 has clearly been a downturn from 2025, and India’s pace planning may now need to reflect that reality.