Pakistan face Sri Lanka in the 5th match of the Pakistan Triangular Series at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, on Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Pakistan lead the all-time ODI head-to-head 96-59, and the CricStats data lean favours them 80% to 20%. This preview breaks down the numbers behind that projection.
Head-to-Head: Pakistan Hold a Long-Term Edge
Across 160 ODIs since the first meeting in 1975, Pakistan have won 96 and Sri Lanka 59. Five games ended as a tie, draw or no result. That gives Pakistan a 60.0% win share against 36.9% for Sri Lanka.
| Metric | Pakistan | Sri Lanka |
|---|
| Matches played | 160 |
| Wins | 96 | 59 |
| Win share | 60.0% | 36.9% |
| Tied/drawn/no result | 5 |
| Last 10 decisive meetings (CricStats) | 90% | 10% |
The recent trend is even more lopsided. Pakistan have won each of the last four meetings listed below, and Sri Lanka's last win came in September 2023.
Most Recent Meetings
| Date | Venue | Result |
|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium | Pakistan won by 37 runs |
| 15 Nov 2025 | Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium | Pakistan won by 6 wickets (32 balls remaining) |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium | Pakistan won by 8 wickets (10 balls remaining) |
| 11 Nov 2025 | Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium | Pakistan won by 6 runs |
| 14 Sep 2023 | R.Premadasa Stadium | Sri Lanka won by 2 wickets (DLS method) |
The two sides have met seven times at this venue.
Recent Form: A 40-Point Gap in Win Rate
Pakistan have won 7 of their last 10 completed ODIs, a 70% win rate. Sri Lanka have won 3 of 10, or 30%. Both sides' latest results came against England, and the outcomes differed.
| Team | Last 10 (newest first) | Won | Lost | Win rate |
|---|
| Pakistan | W W L W L W W W W L | 7 | 3 | 70% |
| Sri Lanka | W L L W L L L W L L | 3 | 7 | 30% |
Latest Results for Each Side
Pakistan beat England by 87 runs on 20 October 2026. Two days earlier they beat Sri Lanka by 37 runs.
Sri Lanka beat England by 2 wickets with 1 ball remaining on 22 October 2026. Before that, they lost to England by 223 runs on 27 September and by 89 runs on 22 September, and won by 16 runs on 24 September. That spread of results points to inconsistency.
Venue Profile: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
Gaddafi Stadium has hosted 73 completed ODIs. Teams batting first have won 39 and teams chasing have won 30. The average first-innings total is 259.
| Gaddafi Stadium ODI metric | Value |
|---|
| Completed ODIs | 73 |
| Won batting first | 39 |
| Won chasing | 30 |
| Average first-innings total | 259 |
Batting first has the edge historically, winning 39 of 73 games (53.4%) against 30 for chasing sides (41.1%). A total near 260 is a reasonable benchmark for a competitive first innings here.
Players in Form Over the Last 12 Months
Squads for this match are not confirmed. The players below have been in form over the past 12 months, and none of them is a certain starter.
Batting
Bowling
| Player | Team | Wickets | Matches | Wickets per match |
|---|
| Haris Rauf | Pakistan | 19 | 8 | 2.4 |
| Shaheen Shah Afridi | Pakistan | 11 | 10 | 1.1 |
| Abrar Ahmed | Pakistan | 11 | 5 | 2.2 |
| Asitha Fernando | Sri Lanka | 14 | 10 | 1.4 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay | Sri Lanka | 8 | 4 | 2.0 |
| Dunith Wellalage | Sri Lanka | 8 | 7 | 1.1 |
Top Performers in This Fixture Since 2021
Pakistan players lead both the run and wicket charts in this matchup since 2021.
| Category | Player | Return |
|---|
| Runs | Babar Azam | 239 in 5 innings |
| Runs | Salman Agha | 218 in 3 innings |
| Runs | Mohammad Rizwan | 203 in 4 innings |
| Wickets | Haris Rauf | 11 |
| Wickets | Shaheen Shah Afridi | 6 |
| Wickets | Faheem Ashraf | 5 |
CricStats Prediction: Pakistan 80%, Sri Lanka 20%
The CricStats data lean is computed from head-to-head record and recent win rates. It favours Pakistan at 80% against 20% for Sri Lanka.
Three inputs drive it: a 90% Pakistan share of the last 10 decisive meetings, a 70% to 30% gap in recent win rate, and a 96-59 all-time record. This is what the numbers suggest, not a certainty. Sri Lanka's win over England on 22 October shows they can close tight games, so a competitive contest remains possible.