New Zealand and India meet in the 4th ODI at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, with the numbers pointing to a closely matched contest. CricStats’ database suggests a slight India advantage, but the recent trend between these teams has been competitive enough to keep the margin narrow. This preview focuses on record-based indicators rather than assumptions, using only the measurable data available.
Head-to-head record shows a narrow India edge
Across 126 ODIs, India lead the all-time rivalry with 65 wins compared to New Zealand’s 52, while 9 matches have ended tied, drawn or with no result. That gives India a historical advantage, but not an overwhelming one, with the split reflecting a long-running and balanced contest.
Since 2021, however, the fixture-specific numbers have been even more relevant. In the latest five meetings listed, India have won twice, New Zealand have won twice, and one match was abandoned after a toss, showing how little separates the sides on recent evidence.
| Format Metric | New Zealand | India |
|---|
| ODIs played | 126 | 126 |
| Wins | 52 | 65 |
| Tied/Drawn/NR | 9 | 9 |
| Last 10 decisive meetings | 20% | 80% |
Recent form is level, but India’s matchup numbers are stronger
Both sides arrive with identical recent completed-ODI win rates of 56%, based on their last 10 completed matches. New Zealand’s sequence reads 5 wins and 4 losses with one no result, while India also have 5 wins and 4 losses with one no result, which suggests neither side has sustained dominant form over a long sample.
Yet CricStats’ calculated lean gives India a 65% probability against New Zealand’s 35%. That assessment aligns with the most recent head-to-head cycle, where India have taken control in the decisive games, winning the last two completed ODIs against New Zealand by narrow margins.
Recent completed ODI form
| Team | Last 10 completed ODIs | Wins | Losses | Win rate |
|---|
| New Zealand | NR L L L W W W L W W | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| India | NR W W L W W L L W L | 5 | 4 | 56% |
Bay Oval data suggests chasing has been slightly easier
The venue record at Bay Oval adds another layer to the preview. In 17 completed ODIs here, teams batting first have won 7 times, while chasing sides have won 10 times. The average first-innings total is 244, which indicates a mid-range scoring ground rather than an especially high-scoring surface.
Those numbers do not strongly favour either strategy, but they do slightly support the chasing side on historical evidence. With 10 of 17 completed matches won by the team batting second, Bay Oval has produced a modest tilt toward pursuit rather than protection of a total.
| Bay Oval ODI Metric | Value |
|---|
| Completed ODIs | 17 |
| Won batting first | 7 |
| Won chasing | 10 |
| Average first-innings total | 244 |
Form players have built strong statistical cases
Among New Zealand’s recent batting contributors, Daryl Mitchell stands out with 675 runs in 9 innings over the last 12 months, including a best of 137. Will Young has added 334 runs in 13 innings, while Tom Latham has 244 in 10 innings, making Mitchell the most productive batter in the group on both volume and average output indicators.
For India, Virat Kohli leads the last-12-month batting returns with 935 runs in 14 innings, followed by Shubman Gill with 694 runs in 11 innings and Rohit Sharma with 630 runs in 14 innings. Kohli’s volume advantage is significant, and Gill’s strike of a high ceiling is reflected in his best score of 223, the highest among the listed batters.
Batting form over the last 12 months
| Player | Runs | Innings | Best |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchell | 675 | 9 | 137 |
| Will Young | 334 | 13 | 87 |
| Tom Latham | 244 | 10 | 69 |
| Virat Kohli | 935 | 14 | 139 |
| Shubman Gill | 694 | 11 | 223 |
| Rohit Sharma | 630 | 14 | 138 |
Bowling returns point to wicket-taking depth on both sides
The bowling data also suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match-up. For New Zealand, Kyle Jamieson and Jayden Lennox each have 17 wickets in their respective recent sample windows, while Jacob Duffy has 13 wickets in 9 matches. That level of wicket-taking consistency gives New Zealand a credible pace and support-bowling profile.
India’s bowling numbers are similarly strong, led by Kuldeep Yadav’s 19 wickets in 9 matches, Prasidh Krishna’s 18 wickets in 10 matches and Gurnoor Brar’s 14 wickets in 8 matches. On raw wicket rate, Kuldeep’s output is the best among the listed bowlers, which strengthens India’s statistical case in the middle overs and beyond.
Recent bowling output
| Player | Wickets | Matches |
|---|
| Kyle Jamieson | 17 | 8 |
| Jayden Lennox | 17 | 7 |
| Jacob Duffy | 13 | 9 |
| Kuldeep Yadav | 19 | 9 |
| Prasidh Krishna | 18 | 10 |
| Gurnoor Brar | 14 | 8 |
Historical comparison favors India in the current cycle
Since 2021, Daryl Mitchell has been New Zealand’s standout run-scorer in this fixture with 824 runs in 13 innings. India’s Shubman Gill is close behind on 779 runs in 15 innings, while Virat Kohli has added 600 in 12 innings, making the top three run-makers from this match-up heavily weighted toward high-output batters.
On the wicket side, India again hold the stronger recent record in this specific fixture. Mohammed Shami leads with 17 wickets since 2021, followed by Kuldeep Yadav on 16 and Kyle Jamieson on 12, which reinforces India’s broader statistical edge across both batting and bowling categories in the recent cycle.
| Since 2021 in this fixture | Runs/Wickets | Sample |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchell | 824 runs | 13 innings |
| Shubman Gill | 779 runs | 15 innings |
| Virat Kohli | 600 runs | 12 innings |
| Mohammed Shami | 17 wickets | - |
| Kuldeep Yadav | 16 wickets | - |
| Kyle Jamieson | 12 wickets | - |
Prediction based on CricStats data lean
The statistical reading is clear: New Zealand are competitive at home, India have the stronger long-term head-to-head record, and both teams arrive with similar recent win rates. However, the matchup-specific numbers since 2021, plus the calculated data lean, give India a modest edge.
Prediction: India are slight favourites on the numbers, with CricStats’ model reading the contest at New Zealand 35% and India 65%. That is a probability edge rather than a guarantee, and the venue data suggests the game may still remain close if the match extends deep into the chase or defence phase.